Negative interest rates have been a strange and controversial phenomenon that has recently been seen in some developed economies in Europe and Asia. But how did we get to this point and what does it mean for the global economy?
How do we understand banking in India?
For us Indians, a bank is typically seen as a secure place to deposit funds and earn some money in return through interest. However, this is not the case in some developed economies such as Japan, where keeping money in banks actually results in a loss due to negative interest rates.
In India, depositors generally receive a small return on their savings, but in Japan and other countries with negative interest rates, depositors must pay a fee to the bank for the privilege of keeping their money safe.
The origins of negative interest rates can be traced back to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks around the world were determined to prevent a sustained global recession. In an effort to stimulate economic growth, they flooded the market with cheap money by offering low-interest rates on loans. This strategy, known as monetary easing, was intended to put more money in people’s pockets and encourage them to spend it, thus triggering a cycle of economic growth, also called expansionary monetary policy.
However, after a few years, some European countries took this strategy to the next level by introducing negative interest rates. This means that central banks are now paying businesses to borrow money, in an effort to encourage more spending and investment. At first glance, this might seem like a great deal for businesses. But why would investors agree to this arrangement, and why would central banks be willing to pay more money on top of the borrowed funds?
what does a country with negative interest rate indicates ?
One possibility is that negative interest rates offer better investment prospects than other options. In a world that may be headed towards a recession, it may be safer to lock up assets in banks and government bonds, even if they don’t offer any return on investment. This is because these “safe haven” assets are less vulnerable to market fluctuations and provide a degree of stability and security.
This unconventional monetary policy is often implemented in times of economic distress, as a way to encourage borrowing and stimulate economic activity. However, it also carries risks and controversies, as it can potentially lead to deflation, asset price bubbles, and investor disincentives.
Another explanation is that negative interest rates could be a sign of a deflationary environment, in which falling prices for goods and services mean that money held in banks can buy more in the future, even without accruing interest. While this might seem like a desirable scenario for consumers, deflation can be a major drag on economic growth. This is because businesses are less likely to invest and create jobs when prices are declining, as there is less incentive to expand operations and take on new risks. As a result, deflation can lead to a downward spiral of falling prices, stagnant demand, and reduced investment.
So, why would central banks pursue such a potentially risky and counterintuitive policy?
One reason is that they may feel they have no other choice. With traditional monetary tools such as interest rate cuts and asset purchases having reached their limits, central banks may be forced to consider more unconventional measures. Additionally, in a low or negative interest rate environment, central banks may have more leeway to stimulate the economy through other means, such as direct lending to businesses or infrastructure projects.
As for India, while its interest rates (repo rate) are currently higher, it is still connected to the global economy and could be affected by negative interest rates in other countries. For example, negative interest rates in Europe and Asia could lead a push to investors to take the extra mile and lookout for profitable developing markets such as India to invest in. Perhaps now you must have understood why Japan is so keen to make bullet trains in India?
There is also the possibility that central banks may eventually reverse their negative interest rate policies, which could have significant consequences for the global economy. For example, a sudden increase in interest rates could lead to a sell-off in bonds and other assets, as investors seek to avoid losses from rising borrowing costs. At the same time, higher interest rates could also stimulate economic growth by encouraging saving and investment, as the opportunity cost of holding cash increases.
Negative interest rates are a type of monetary policy in which central banks charge banks for holding their excess reserves, rather than paying them interest.
The idea behind negative interest rates is to encourage banks to lend more money to businesses and consumers, rather than hoarding it in central bank accounts, in an effort to stimulate economic activity. However, negative interest rates also carry risks and uncertainties, including the potential for a deflationary spiral, asset price bubbles, and investor disincentives. As a result, negative interest rates remain a controversial and debated policy tool, with varying opinions on their effectiveness and long-term consequences.
