2022 Assembly Elections: BJP close to easy victory in Gujarat, difficult in Himachal


India’s great election festival is coming to an end as the polling picture in the two states is getting clearer and clearer as the days go by. The counting of ballots for the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state assemblies began on Thursday. Earlier, the results of Delhi MCD’s elections were declared a day before.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on its way to a landslide victory in Gujarat, while it is locked in a tough fight with the Congress in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh. Both states have incumbent BJP governments led by Jairam Thakur in Himachal Pradesh and Bhupendra Patel in Gujarat.

A lot was at stake in the state of Gujarat as it was the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP could barely win against the Congress party in the 2017 elections.

As per the voting trends in Gujarat, the day is definitely good for Aam Aadmi Party as the party has been able to make inroads in the state. In the 2017 elections also, AAP fought with full force but could not get a single seat. In 2022, AAP is leading in 5 seats with comfortable margin.

This comes a day after it ended the BJP’s 15-year rule in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. Although Kejriwal’s claim of making Gujarat’s fight a tripartite is not working, AAP does not seem to be getting even double digit seats

While pollsters expect a close contest between the BJP and the Congress in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP is clearly on track to improve on its 2017 results to begin its seventh term in Gujarat.

These results indicate a clear decline in the hold of the Congress party in Indian politics. The party is clearly losing Gujarat so badly that they are unable to retain the seats they won in 2017. Congress’s 2017 performance was many times better than its 2022 performance.

A total of 68.41% people took part in voting in both the phases of polling in Gujarat. Whereas in the 2017 elections too, there was a decrease of three percentage points in the voting percentage which was around 69.01%.

In the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections, the Congress had won 77 seats. However, after a wave of defections, the Congress was reduced to 62 members in the state assembly.
The BJP, on the other hand, had won 99 seats but had 111 MLAs ahead of the 2022 elections due to defectors. Many MLAs have come to BJP from Congress.

Himachal Pradesh went to polls in a single phase on 12 November. Despite inclement weather conditions, the Himalayan state recorded over 70% polling. Tashigang, the world’s highest polling station, got 100% turnout.

In the 2017 election, the BJP won 44 out of 68 seats, while the Congress won 21, although Kejriwal’s AAP did not contest, although they are contesting in 2022.
Based on the trends, the incumbent BJP is leading in more than 25 seats, while the Congress is leading in more than 40 seats and three independents are also leading. If the BJP’s numbers decrease further, then the path will become easier for the Congress.

Himachal Pradesh is the home state of BJP national president JP Nadda, and it was also the scene of a rebellion by politicians who could not fetch party tickets and ran as independent candidates.

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Abhishek Kumar
Abhishek Kumar
Abhishek Kumar is a final year undergraduate student at the University of Delhi, where he is studying English Honors. He is passionate about literature and language, and enjoys researching stories. Laziest in our team and he loves coffee.

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