Election Commissions’s Advisory On Exit Poll 2019, Are they trustworthy ?

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exit poll 2019The Seventh or the last phase of the election 2019 are about to end in a few moments from now. Soon as the phase concludes, various national T.V. news channels have planned to present the Exit Poll 2019 of this years election. The notable one’s will be, India Today-Axis, Times Now-CNX, Republic-CVoter, ABP-CSDS and Today’s Chanakya will be releasing their expected results after 6:00PM. However the elections results by the EC will be declared on 23rd of May.

The authenticity of exit polls has long been debated due to micro sized samples and non Verifiability of votes. Hence all exit polls are technically based on mere opinion, though what differentiates an exit poll is the fact that it is taken as soon as the voter exits the polling booth. The average sample size for one constituency varies any where between 10 to 50 samples which clearly indicates the imprecision of the prediction.

It is important to know that in 2014 elections, the prediction by todays chanakya did turned very accurate, also in state body elections of Assam, Tripura and West Bengal.

In an act of concern, the election commission released an advisory to all the online media portals like ours and T.V. channels to not release any prediction/exit/opinion poll before the the commencement of the final phase. The EC has also instructed social media like twitter to take down any polls related to the prediction during the ongoing phase of election.

Here we summed up the the instructions by the EC on exit poll 2019 :

– Any exit poll can only be telecasted half an hour later when the last phase have officially over.

– This years advisory also covers those news media organisations which majorly operate online.

– EC says to all the news bodies to ensure the promotional videos of any prediction poll should not include any request or promotion of any party.

– EC also said.”Any violation reported will be dealt by the News Broadcasting Standards Authority (NBSA) under its regulations,”

– The EC guidelines also bar broadcasters from airing any final, formal and definite results until such results are officially out in order to prevent ruckus between the party-voters .

– The election body also directed newspapers and TV channels that they should disclose the sample size taken and the chances of the error.

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